Southeast Texas – More Rain, Wind, and Waves – 9/12/2018
More Flash Flooding Possible Tonight and Tomorrow
The National Weather Service in Houston (NWS) has issued a Flash Flood Watch for our coastal counties in Southeast Texas (including Galveston, Brazoria, Chambers Counties, and beyond) starting at midnight tonight through 7pm Thursday evening. As you’re likely aware, the coastal counties have received a lot of rain in the last several days (more than 10″ in some places) and more is expected overnight tonight and into Thursday. The soils are saturated and an additional 1-3” widespread with pockets higher amounts (4-6″ or more) has the potential to cause more street flooding. Please plan your morning commute to avoid areas that are flood prone. Also, Remember: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Radar from the NWS below. Click your browser’s refresh button to update the loop periodically.
-Contributor: Tom Payne-
Radar Loop – Houston NWS
Rainfall Totals – Last 7 Days
Flash Flood Watch Details and Timing
Insanely busy right now. Tropical Storm Joyce joined the party out in the north central Atlantic. No Threat to U.S. Helene also isn’t a threat to the U.S.
Florence – is a beast, and she’s going to wreak havoc on the Carolinas. Pray for them.
Isaac – this guy is kind of a jerk. It’s now looking like he’ll survive the trek across the eastern Caribbean and there’s a chance he could move into the Gulf of Mexico. Too early to pinpoint a track that’s accurate beyond 5 days, but we’re now watching him.
Gulf of Mexico Disturbance – Still looking rather ragged and disorganized. NHC says 70% chance of a cyclone forming before landfall somewhere near Baffin Bay, TX. Regardless, expecting lots of rain, some wind, and wave action along the Texas coast north and east of where it goes in, including SE Texas.
Major Hurricane Florence 5 Day Track
Tropical Storm Isaac 5 Day Track
Models for the Gulf of Mexico Disturbance
The Wind and the Waves
Models continue to indicate that SE Texas will begin seeing stronger winds by late evening on Wednesday 9/12 and into Thursday morning, peaking Friday afternoon, and then relaxing to normal by early Sunday morning. This same time frame for winds is true for wave heights as well. Expecting swells to begin reaching SE Texas by early, early, Thursday morning, and will gradually increase through Thursday and into Friday. Once the system goes ashore, the wave heights will begin to fall rapidly. Tides are expected to run higher than normal during this time, and some beach erosion along with dangerous rip currents will be possible (depending on strength of system).
Here’s a quick surf report for good ol’ G-Town Brown by Trevor Page:
Surf’s Up Bros
Well gentleman, Florence isn’t going to bring much to the Texas coast. I pray it doesn’t bring much more than rain to our east coast friends in the Carolinas.
However, there is something a’brew out there in the good ol’ Gulf of Mexico! And quite possibly the eastern/southeast winds will provide for clean, clear water, and nice lines.
This weather formation may add some swell to your day if conditions hold or progress.
Thursday/Friday look to be the best for getting wet. Wave heights aiming to give you 2.5-3ft (rear height) of pure swell. Winds will be breezy, but not be too bad over the next few days of surf, averaging about 17 mph from roughly the southeast/east direction.
There will be no shortage of rain and stormy weather in Galveston and surrounding areas, so don’t get electrified out there. This looks to be a quick run of waves, catch’em while you can!
So Now What?
We ask that you stay tuned for updates, but, as storms approach, we do also want you to listen to the National Weather Service. They have access to the latest and greatest information and will be able to provide life-saving updates to you in real-time. www.weather.gov.
Who We Are
In case you were wondering, we are the TX Weather Recon team, which is an affiliate of Saltwater-Recon.com. We are meteorologists (thanks to Texas A&M — whoop!), and we do our best to keep our fans and followers safe during these weather events. You can find us on Facebook at the following links:
Be safe and good night!